Guernsey Forecasts U.S. Natural Gas Storage Level to Recover in Early January

01.07.2003

OKLAHOMA CITY – The national natural gas storage withdrawals for the beginning of 2003 will be relatively modest when compared to the withdrawals for the same period in recent years according to C. H. Guernsey & Company economists.

This minimal draw down of reserves will leave the balances at approximately the five-year average levels.

GUERNSEY's estimate, based on an econometric model of gas storage injections and withdrawals, shows a net withdrawal of 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending Jan. 3. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its net change of stored gas estimate for this period on Jan. 9.

GUERNSEY is estimating a further net withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 10 of 113 bcf.

Dr. Donald Murry, Vice President and economist, said the nation's storage of natural gas is below the past five-year average.

“Although we entered the heating season with high gas-in-storage levels, early cold weather caused a net draw down of 755 bcf in November and December compared to a net draw down of only 144 bcf one year ago. This left gas-in-storage levels below the five-year average level for this time of year,” Murry said.

The estimated net withdrawal of 205 bcf for the first two weeks of January is only 60 percent of last year's draw down for the same period. If the GUERNSEY predictions hold, the U.S. natural gas storage levels will recover to approximately the five-year average level by the beginning of the third week in January.

C. H. Guernsey & Company, celebrating its 75th year of business, offers the highest quality engineering, architectural and consulting solutions to clients in the United States and abroad. GUERNSEY has its headquarters in Oklahoma City with offices in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois and Texas.

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