Guernsey Says Large Natural Gas Levels to Influence Winter Prices

11.11.2003

OKLAHOMA CITY – C. H. Guernsey & Company economists, Donald Murry, Ph.D. and Zhen Zhu Ph.D., say the large amount of natural gas in storage will influence the price heading into the heating season.

The economists estimate natural gas levels, injected during the week ending Nov. 7, range from 28 to 36 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This is a revision of their stored gas, peak-level prediction going into the 2003-04 heating season.

At this injection level, the U.S. Department of Energy will estimate at least 3,183 Bcf in storage at the heating season start. Given the current weather forecasts, the economists are also predicting the first draw down, at a level of 28 Bcf, will occur during the week ending Nov. 14.

Donald Murry, vice president, says this level of stored natural gas is significant enough to influence winter prices providing the winter is not worse than normal.

“A normal winter draw down would leave approximately 1,200 Bcf in storage at the end of March,” Murry states. This figure compares favorably to the level of gas in storage, which was 623 Bcf, at the end of the 2002-03 heating season.

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EDITOR'S NOTES:

C. H. Guernsey & Company Background Information:
C. H. Guernsey & Company, celebrating its 75th year of business, offers the highest quality engineering, architectural and consulting solutions to clients in the United States and abroad. GUERNSEY has its headquarters in Oklahoma City with offices in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois and Texas.