Atlanta water supply precarious
Without conservation, future looks glum

06.17.2005
by Stacy Shelton - The Atlanta Journal Constitution

It's been two years since Georgia, Alabama and Florida ended rancorous high-level negotiations over how to divvy up the Chattahoochee River, metro Atlanta's primary water source.

Since then, drenching rainfall has washed memories of the searing drought of 1998 to 2002 off the front page and out of the public's mind.

The U.S. Supreme Court hasn't capped growth in metro Atlanta, as some feared, and water still flows when we turn on our faucets. The lawsuits that broke out when the talks broke down are mostly yawners, highlighted by nicely dressed attorneys making convoluted arguments in wood-paneled courtrooms. All the while, thousands of new homes and businesses are tapping into water mains across the region.

But scientists and state officials say this is exactly the time when the region should prepare for the next drought. Doing nothing will spell disaster. As metro Atlanta's population doubles in the next 25 years, rising demand and a static supply would equal a serious water shortfall.

According to the Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District's 2003 plans, the region would face a water deficit of 284 million gallons a day by 2030 without aggressive conservation measures and new lakes to store water. The potential shortfall is close to the amount used today by everyone in Gwinnett and Fulton counties and the city of Atlanta.

The option is to spend more than $60 billion over the next 30 years to pay for water and sewer improvements and ongoing maintenance, according to the district. But progress so far is hit or miss in the district, which comprises 16 counties and hundreds of communities.

Two reservoirs are under construction, and five more are in the works while other, more basic water-wise polices have hit stumbling blocks. Most local governments are reluctant to impose stormwater fees on property owners to pay for systems to handle urban runoff and reduce water pollution. And some have been unwilling to charge a sliding fee for water that penalizes wasters.

Last year, the real estate industry scuttled the district's No. 1 conservation measure, which was to require home sellers to update their plumbing fixtures to meet today's low-flow standards. All the talking and planning have so far yielded few long-lasting results.

But here's the worst part: Even with all the well-laid plans about how to maximize the water from our rivers and streams, no one knows how much can safely be taken out.

The watersheds contain only so much water that can be used for drinking, cooking, flushing, showering and sprinkling lawns. The rest must stay in the rivers to keep them and their aquatic species healthy. Site-specific, scientific research that includes monitoring stream flows and surveying aquatic species hasn't been done.

Only the water rivers can spare during severe droughts can be guaranteed, according to Mark Crisp, a water expert who has studied the Chattahoochee River for more than 20 years. Counting on more water than that would be "like designing the structural steel of the building to withstand just a windstorm of 60 miles per hour, knowing full well we've had hurricane winds of 100 miles per hour."

Money flow

The study of the water supply hasn't been done because it's so expensive, estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars statewide, said Nap Caldwell, a senior water policy adviser with the state Environmental Protection Division who is working on Georgia's first statewide water management plan.

"We fumbled around for years not knowing what the right questions are," Caldwell said. Now that the scientists know what they need to do, "We have to figure out how we're going to pay for it."

In the first two years of the three-year effort, the statewide water planning process is budgeted to get about $890,000 through July 1, 2006. It's enough money to answer some political questions, not scientific ones. The state Water Council will help decide, for instance, whether fast-developing metropolitan areas should be able to take water away from rural communities that are still hoping for a growth spurt.

Crisp thinks he knows what the science will find.

In a research paper he presented in April at the Georgia Water Resources Conference in Athens for water managers, planners and others, Crisp analyzed state data and concluded that during a drought, the Chattahoochee River is already giving as much water to metro Atlanta as it can. If he's right, new homes and businesses, along with acres of thirsty golf courses, lawns and flower gardens, are being built on borrowed water.

"We can't invite all these people to live here if we're only going to have water 80 percent of the time," said Crisp, manager of the Atlanta office for C.H. Guernsey & Co., an Oklahoma City-based engineering, architectural and consulting firm. "We cannot afford to run out of water, ever."

Experts optimistic

State and local water experts believe the water will be there. And metro Atlanta's water planning district spent $8 million in state and local money on plans that assume it will be.

But in all the assurances, there are several major ifs. Failure on any one of them could send the region into a water deficit. They are:

> Alabama, Florida, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and perhaps Congress or the U.S. Supreme Court will allow metro Atlanta to continue taking more and more water out of Lake Lanier and the upper Chattahoochee River.

> An aggressive conservation effort will reduce individual and industrial water needs by at least 10 percent.

> At least five more lakes will be built to store water.

> About 150 million gallons a day of water will be transferred from the Etowah River and Lake Allatoona over to the Chattahoochee basin.

> Communities around Lake Lanier will discharge up to 165 million gallons a day of treated wastewater into the lake.

If all those things happen, the metropolitan region could have about 78 million gallons of water a day to spare by 2030. That's a small margin for error, considering DeKalb County alone already uses more water than that every day.

The region also will have to get a handle on one of its biggest water sponges: septic tanks. An estimated one-quarter of the water district's homes and businesses are on septic tanks. Suburbanizing outer counties continue to rely heavily on them in areas where sewers haven't been built.

That's a problem, because septic tanks are considered water wasters. They subtract water from the system and don't return it to the waterways like a sewer system does.

Some dispute the claim, arguing that septic tank wastewater eventually makes it back to the rivers. Again, there's no definitive answer.

In the water district, septic tanks ingest as much as a quarter of the region's water supply. About 20 percent to 30 percent waters lawns, fills swimming pools, leaks into the ground from broken pipes or is transferred to another river basin. For the stretch of the Chattahoochee River through metro Atlanta, that's a loss of as much as 200 million gallons a day.

Upcoming drought

The next drought --- when all of this will be of crucial importance --- could come as early as 2008 and last three years, said Aris Georgakakos, director of the Georgia Water Resources Institute at Georgia Tech.

"I hope we don't stop thinking about the problems now that we have a wet climate cycle," Georgakakos said. "The next drought is going to come for sure. We have to be ready."

Gov. Sonny Perdue and EPD Director Carol Couch have said they are aware of the problems and are working toward solutions through the statewide water plan.

The pending water crisis already exists in many parts of the state, on the coast where saltwater has contaminated parts of the underground aquifer and in southwest Georgia where farmers aren't allowed to drill new wells.

"Most of our citizens live in areas where water resources are already strained," Perdue said in April at the water conference. "We've got to take steps now. In the past we acted as if we had the luxury of time. Our snooze alarm has just worn out."

But Couch also said the statewide plan will leave a lot of unanswered questions. "It does not address long-term funding, or how regional bodies are setup and funded for regional planning," Couch said at the Athens water conference. "I'd like to say we have road maps, but they're created from hindsight. . . . We can't afford to wait."

WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Without conservation, reclamation and more reservoirs, Atlanta is projected to run short of water in the future.
933: Existing Atlanta water supply in millions of gallons per day.
652: Existing Atlanta water demand in millions of gallons per day.
1,217: Demand in 2030, without aggressive water management, in millions of gallons per day.
284: Projected shortfall in 2030, without water management, in millions of gallons per day.
Source: Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District, based on 2001 data.

ATLANTA'S WATER FUTURE
What happens to Atlanta's growth if aggressive water management plans are not carried out soon?
4 million: Metro Atlanta population now
7.8 million: Metro Atlanta population in 2030
652: Water use now, in millions of gallons per day.
1,217: Water use in 2030 without aggressive conservation
1,189: Water use in 2030 with aggressive conservation
933: Water supply in 2030 without aggressive water conservation and management measures
1,267: Water supply in 2030 with aggressive water conservation and management measures.
Source: Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District, based on 2001 data.