Next 2 months could sink your summer swim

January 31, 2008
By Lateef Mungin, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Atlanta -- If drought conditions do not improve in February and March, summertime swimming could be lost before we're even out of spring.

North Georgia needs to have four consecutive months of continued improvement before the state can consider downgrading the Level 4 drought — the most severe designation — and lift the restrictions on outdoor watering, according to state regulations.

However, state Environmental Protection Division chief Carol Couch has wide latitude to grant exemptions. She said last week that her recommendations will be delivered to Gov. Sonny Perdue no later than Friday. Perdue, in turn, can accept, reject or modify those recommendations.

Perdue's office said Wednesday that it has not received Couch's plan.

State climatologist David Stooksbury said North Georgia hasn't started the year out well, already running about 1 1/2 inches below normal rainfall. That comes after a dismal 2007, in which the Atlanta area had just 31.84 inches of rain — just .04 inches above the record low of 1954. The annual average is more than 50 inches.

Though recent rains have helped a bit, Lake Lanier, the region's primary water supply, stands just 7 inches above its record low, hit just after Christmas. With January rainfall coming in below normal, February would be the first possible month to show improvement. That would mean July would be the first time the pools could be open, under the state regulations.

If March stays dry, swimming pools could be closed until August, and that's when most children return to school.

"February and March really are the fork in the road for us," said Mark Crisp, an Atlanta-based water expert for the national consulting firm C.H. Guernsey & Co. "If we don't get an increase in rainfall in those months, there will be no outdoor swimming."

In September, the state responded to this historic drought by banning outdoor water use in 61 counties, mostly in North Georgia. Along with other activities, the ban restricts people from filling or adding water to private or public outdoor pools.

This week, Republican state lawmakers introduced legislation to take the decision on banning pools away from the state EPD, with state Sen. Chip Rogers (R-Woodstock) saying, "There is absolutely no evidence that closing swimming pools will noticeably impact our drought situation."

But Stooksbury said he recommends a conservative approach.

"We don't want to get fooled by one really wet month," he said. "We have seen some improvements recently, but it is still not enough."